Do you keep losing by following the conventional wisdom? Maybe it’s time to go against the grain. In this article, we’ll explore why playing the long shot might be smarter than you think – and how to do it right.
The favourite trap
Many bettors fall into the trap of betting on the favourites over and over again. The logic sounds simple enough – the favourite has a better chance of winning, so why not bet on them? But the reality is more nuanced than that. You need to look deeper into the odds and value judgements to understand when it makes sense to go against the grain. Try using the pesa bet app, available through the download guide at the link, to keep track of the best odds on the go on your smartphone.
Higher odds mean bigger wins
By betting on underdogs with higher odds, you potentially increase your profit margin significantly if your bets go in. A single win on a long shot can easily outperform multiple winning bets on the favourites. For example, if you bet $10 on a favourite at odds of 1.50 and win, you’ll get $150 back. However, if you bet $10 on an underdog at 6.00 odds and hit the bull’s eye instead, you’ll win $600.
Value judgements are often overlooked
Bookmakers set odds based on expected stakes, not just actual win probabilities. If most bettors ignore the value aspect and simply bet on the favourite, the odds on long shots can be overvalued compared to the actual chances. This creates opportunities for the skilled bettor who knows how to find and exploit these value discrepancies.
Motivation is key
Underdogs often have a special drive that can outweigh the talent level. Players and teams labelled as clear underdogs can get a motivational boost from being underestimated. The fire in the belly to prove the world wrong can in some cases be enough to turn a supposed outcome around.
The element of surprise
An element of surprise can also give long shots an advantage. If the favourite is too busy seeing themselves as the winner, they can become overconfident and overlook important preparations. An underdog, on the other hand, can focus fully on planning tactics that the opponent doesn’t even see coming.
Understanding value and odds
To play smart on long shots, you need to be able to analyse odds objectively. Learn to identify situations where the odds do not fairly reflect the real chances. Use your knowledge of sports, teams and players to spot anomalies where the market either over- or underestimates a participant’s probability of winning.
Manage your bankroll wisely
Self-discipline is paramount. Make sure to spread out your bets and never overwhelm your total bankroll in a few games. A single long-shot loss shouldn’t be able to topple your finances. Have a sensible money management strategy with a clear framework for what percentage of your bankroll you are willing to risk on one bet.
Be selective with your chances
Don’t just bet on every underdog. Analyse each potential bet thoroughly. Identify obvious value discrepancies where your research suggests higher win probabilities than the odds offered. The greater the difference between your own judgement and the odds, the better value you get from your bets.
Timing is crucial
Pay attention to when you bet on long shots. Some sports and tournaments are more prone to surprises than others. Take advantage of situations with higher uncertainty or lack of dominant favourites. Also, avoid betting on underdogs in matches or tournaments where the form and motivation of the favourites has historically been extremely high.
Avoid pitfalls
While there are good reasons to consider long shots, be careful not to get carried away. Remember that the favourites are often favourites for a reason – keep an eye out for injuries, key player absences and other factors that can actually reduce the underdog’s chances significantly. And be critical with your own analyses – confirm your assessments and eliminate bias and wishful thinking.
Balance your approach
As a bettor, you should neither be a fanatic supporter of the favourites nor a sceptical overconfident opponent. The optimal strategy is to remain open, nuanced and willing to challenge your own beliefs. Combine a healthy mix of favourites and long shots based on the conclusions of your research. That way you maximise your chances of long-term profit across many bets.
Remember the bigger picture
Never bet with money you can’t afford to lose. Betting, especially on long shots, should always be done with a healthy dose of perspective. It’s fun, exciting and potentially lucrative – but never something to bet your entire future on. Keep it responsible and treat it as a form of entertainment with the risk of both winning and losing.